June 20, 2013
May 16 - Craig and Deb Bensen
Obama vs. Romney Polls
Most national polls are a statistical dead heat. Both Obama and Romney poll in the 45-47% of the vote range with error rates of 3-5%. Big news is made of tiny changes in the numbers. Likely these are the numbers we’ll continue to see until after the conventions are held.
Warning! If the unemployment rate makes a big move down towards 7%, Mr. Obama’s numbers will hit plus 50%. Conversely, if the economy takes a big hit—Euro-catastrophe, Chinese economic explosion, etc., Mr. Romney’s numbers will hit plus 50%.
No one is expecting Ralph Nader to give the Republicans a gift like he did in 2000 when his third party run pushed the race into George W. Bush’s hands. This year speculation is widespread on the right. Ron Paul says he’s not going third party. This is good news for the GOP as he could well catch 5% of the vote nationally.
There is another way for conservatives to swing the Presidential election other that a national third party run. Should a third party candidate win the electoral votes of just two or three states that are currently being counted as wins for Romney, the electoral vote tally tips toward Mr. Obama.
Removing the electoral votes of just two or three states from the two major candidates prevents Mr. Obama from a clean majority win in the electoral college (assuming that Romney was leading Obama)). This would throw the selection of the President to the U.S. House and the selection of the Vice President to the U.S. Senate. Given the current mix of Congress, a third party candidate winning the electoral votes of just two or three states might give the USA President Romney and Vice President Biden!
There is a third party candidate stalking the race, out west Gary Johnson, the former Governor of New Mexico, represents the most interesting of the third party plays. He’s running at the top of the Libertarian Party ticket. He has the potential to win in New Mexico as well as run strong in Arizona, Nevada and Idaho - western rural states with strong Ron Paul and Tea Party groups.
The Romney team is actively vetting potential Vice-Presidential running mates - this is a top secret operation. Secrecy doesn’t exist in the blogosphere where names frequently mentioned include:
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio
South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley
Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty
Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval
Texas Gov. Rick Perry
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal
Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann
House Speaker Newt Gingrich from Georgia
Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan
Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee
Utah Gov., Ambassador Jon Huntsman
Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin
Conventional Wisdom (CW) dictates that the VP strengthen the ticket by adding geographic, experiential and demographic diversity—hence Sen. John McCain’s choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin in 2008. She broadened the ticket on gender, geography and experience. McCain probably wasn’t aware that she would also bring charisma and controversy with her.
The ideal CW choice might be described as the daughter of a Cherokee Navy admiral who attended school in 12 seacoast states before studying international affairs at Harvard and picking up a law degree from Yale. She is a representative from either Texas or Florida, has 2.5 children and is married to the President of the Univ. of Southern California who is of Puerto Rican and Chinese ancestry. And their adopted teenage son is the founder of the next company that Google will be buying….
CW aside, Romney’s pick has to keep the social conservative base “energized”. Palin did this for McCain in 2008. Santorum, Rubio or Perry might do it for Romney in 2012.
Two grassroots trends are emerging to trouble the centrists of the GOP. The first is that the Ron Paul folks are not “going gently into that good night”. Recently in Maine, and likely in other states during May and June, the Paul folks have taken over the State GOP Convention by using the local caucus process to get their people chosen as delegates. Once at the State convention, the Paul group elected their people to go to the National Convention in Tampa. This increases the risk that Romney might not get a “first ballot” win in Tampa.
The second trend, a continuance from 2011, is the removal of incumbents or the displacement of centrist GOP candidates by Tea Party candidates. This led to the end of Sen. Richard Lugar’s career in Indiana on May 9th. In Nevada, conservative State Senator Deb Fischer has won the GOP Primary for the US Senate by beating two centrists on May 15th. This trend is worrisome to the centrists of both major parties.
Millennials to Pro-Life
The increasing number of young people who strongly support pro-life causes has prompted the president of the National Abortion Rights Action League (NARAL) Pro-Choice America to resign at the end of the year.
Nancy Keenan, 60, cited NARAL’s own data in telling The Washington Post on May 11th that “new and younger leadership” is needed to reach Millennials — people between the ages of 18 and 34.
“The next (leader) will preside over a declining NARAL, a declining Planned Parenthood, declining National Organization for Women. The future does not look really good for them.”
According to The Washington Post, NARAL’s own 2010 survey of 700 Millennials showed 51 percent of pro-life voters under 30 consider abortion “very important” in elections, compared to only 26 percent of their peers who support abortion.
Voters Strong for Marriage
In North Carolina, where Democrats will hold their National Convention, voters strongly supported traditional marriage at the polls on May 9th passing a ban on all types of same sex unions by 61% to 39%. This makes the 32nd straight win at the polls for traditional marriage. This stunning win came even as polls predicted a 50-50 vote. This victory was blow off the media radar the next day when President Obama made his announcement in support of same sex unions being made equal to marriage.
According to Gallup’s latest polling, the President’s endorsement of same-sex “marriage” is a costly one—especially among Independent voters. Forty percent of adults say his position will affect their votes—and not the way Democrats had hoped. Of the 40%, 26% of adults said they would be less likely to vote for Obama. What hurts more, from a campaign standpoint, is the number of Independents the President stands to lose from his “evolution.” Twenty-three percent were instantly turned off by his new position and said they would be less likely to vote for him in November. Gallup analyst Jeffrey Jones sees this agenda as a “net minus” for Obama.
PRAYING THE DECISION POINTS
Working on the belief that God will be looking for our prayers to release His plans during this election season, we may offer these prayers:
1) That God’s choice(s) would have volunteers, funding and favor in full supply to accomplish their calling in this season.
2) That the Light of Truth will shine where it needs to shine revealing the good, the bad and the ugly about the candidates, the political parties and the process.
3) That leaders and opinion influencers would make godly decisions about who they will be endorsing.
4) That the plans, schemes, “dirty tricks”, etc., of those seeking to manipulate the elections would be exposed and/or fall prey to the Law of Unintended Consequences (what is meant for a curse becomes a blessing).
5) That God’s people would purpose to vote in this season and would vote informed by facts, prayer and the Holy Spirit.
6) That citizen support for strong family values would be a major message perceived and reported by the media during this season.
7) That this election season would be characterized by the quality of the ideas and solutions debated, not by the false hopes and promises of past elections.
8) That our citizenry would be more and better informed, resolute in choosing candidates of substance; that we would demand a new era of Americans working together to solve our problems and to move into our future; that we would vote for those who share our vision.