June 19, 2013
Apr 17 - Craig and Deb Bensen
Here’s the current overview of the delegate distribution in the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary:
THE DUST IS SETTLING
Rick Santorum suspended his campaign on April 10th. His reasoning was threefold: (1) he hadn’t notched any clean, big wins in states with high numbers of swing voters, (2) he had to win 75% of all the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination while currently winning at a rate of only 45%, and (3) polls were showing him losing to Romney in his home state of Pennsylvania. So, “Thanks, Rick, it was a good clean race… maybe there’s a “next time” in 2016.”
Mitt Romney has been trying to tell the Republicans since 2009 that he’s the front runner for the 2012 nomination. Now he is. His problem (see the chart above)? He’s won 64% of the delegates so far but only 42% of the popular vote. Republican Party leadership sees him as the “most likely to beat Obama” but grassroots GOP voters are still unconvinced.
“Limping Duck” Candidates
Rick Santorum stepped aside with a touch of class.
Newt Gingrich was not leaving despite lacks of funding, delegates and clear victories. The plan was to “positively influence the Party Platform” by staying in until the last state was polled. With Santorum out, Gingrich might catch a surprise win… and, just like in the movies, the “people’s candidate” would beat the system…. Perhaps Newt had seen a few too many movies…
Newt got to test his plan on April 24th during the primary races in Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania and New York. Newt’s vote ran from 6% to 27% while Romney notched five majority wins with results from 56% to 67%. The next day Newt was out of the race….
Ron Paul has never intended to leave the race or win the race. His campaign is all about building his base and gaining a hearing for his ideas. His campaign has never been seen as a real threat to Romney so the centrist GOP SuperPacs have not spent any money trying to destroy him. In fact, the centrists like that Paul’s campaign siphons votes away from the other conservatives. And they really like the way that he gives Tea Party types a voice without being a threat to “the established order.”
However, the Paul campaign is expected to have enough delegates to make waves at many of the state GOP conventions and to attempt to be heard at the National Convention.
QUESTIONS STILL ON THE TABLE
Now that the press frenzy of Primary season has taken a break, are we looking at a dull lull until the Conventions in August? Not likely. The focus may not be as intense on the national races until August but some items are still on the table several of which will keep the frenzy running especially in key states with 2012 Senate races.
Obama-Biden vs. Romney-?????
The Romney campaign has announced that they are actively seeking a Vice-Presidential running mate for the heir apparent—- but we’ll have to wait for the details. Meanwhile, the blogosphere will provide the content for anyone willing to listen. Names frequently heard being mentioned by someone other than themselves include:
Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio
South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley
Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty
Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval
Texas Gov. Rick Perry
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal
Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann
House Speaker Newt Gingrich from Georgia
Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan
Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee
Utah Gov., Ambassador Jon Huntsman
Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin
Conventional Wisdom (CW) dictates that the VP strengthen the ticket by adding geographic, experiential and demographic diversity. Hence Sen. John McCain’s choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin in 2008. She broadened the ticket on gender, geography and experience. McCain probably wasn’t aware that she would also bring charisma and controversy with her.
The ideal CW choice might be described as the daughter of a Cherokee Navy admiral who attended school in 12 seacoast states before studying international affairs at Harvard and picking up a law degree from Yale. She is a representative from either Texas or Florida, has 2.5 children and is married to the President of the Univ. of Southern California who is of Puerto Rican and Chinese ancestry. And their adopted teenage son is the founder of the next company that Google will be buying….
CW aside, Romney’s pick has to keep the social conservative base “energized”. Palin did this for McCain in 2008. Santorum, Rubio or Perry might do it for Romney in 2012.
Will the Senate Flip?
First place on the Republican wish list is a new President in 2013. Second place is GOP control of the Senate. Current projections give the GOP a slight edge toward a 52-48 majority but all polls are in the “too close to call” category.
Will the House Hold?
No one is expecting the GOP grip on Congress to flip. There is a question about slippage. If the Tea Party and the economy aren’t the huge motivators that they proved to be in 2010, will Speaker Boehner have a smaller edge and a harder time restraining Democrats or a 2nd term Pres. Obama?
The Supremes and ObamaCare?
What will the Supreme Court decide about ObamaCare? If the only scheme is junked and thrown back to the current Congress, will any progress be made in addressing the healthcare crisis? How would a repudiation of ObamaCare help the GOP in the fall elections? Come June we’ll likely know more…
The Next Supreme(s)?
For the long term strategists, Congresses and Presidents are temporary but Supreme Court Justices have a way of sticking around for decades. Whoever is president in 2013 likely gets 2-3 chances to appoint new Justices to the highest court. And whoever is in the Senate gets to help or hinder those appointments.
We want to be praying timely prayers. Here are some of the current election time points.
1) Individuals who want to attend the National Conventions are getting their petitions signed and submitted in advance of the state conventions in May. The state conventions elect the delegates to go to the National Conventions. These are the delegates that everyone fights to win in the Primaries.
2) Across the country individuals who hold public office, especially state legislators, are making decisions about running in the upcoming election. Others are making decisions about running for these same offices.
3) Persons looking to hold or gain a seat in the U.S. House or Senate are firming up their campaign plans, seeking endorsements and asking for early contributions as they seeker wider affirmation of their decision to run.
PRAYING THE DECISION POINTS
Working from the belief that God will be looking for our prayers to release His plans during this Primary season, we may offer these prayers:
1) That God’s choice(s) would have volunteers, funding and favor in full supply to accomplish their calling in this season.
2) That the Light of Truth will shine where it needs to shine revealing the good, the bad and the ugly about the candidates, the political parties and the process.
3) That those who considering standing for public office would make God-informed decisions about entering the public arena.
4) That the plans, schemes, “dirty tricks”, etc., of those seeking to manipulate the elections would be exposed and/or fall prey to the Law of Unintended Consequences (what is meant for a curse becomes a blessing).
5) That God’s people would purpose to vote in this season and would vote informed by facts, prayer and the Holy Spirit.
6) That citizen support for strong family values would be a major message perceived and reported by the media during this season.
7) That this election season would be characterized by the quality of the ideas and solutions debated, not by the false hopes and promises of past elections.
8) That our citizenry would be more and better informed, resolute in choosing candidates of substance; that we would demand a new era of Americans working together to solve our problems and to move into our future; that we would vote for those who share our vision.
Wikipedia offers a good review of the process that is updated frequently at Wikipedia: Republican Party Presidential Primaries